Sigma Dos and BSG Dominican Election Exit Poll: Women, Young Voters Key to Medina’s Victory
May 22, 2012
Sigma Dos and BSG conducted an exit poll during the elections for president in the Dominican Republic. The results provide insights into the results.
Pete Brodnitz, a principal at BSG in Washington D.C., issued the following statement:
“As our polling throughout the campaign and Sunday’s election results confirmed, women gave Mr. Medina his winning edge in his victory in the Dominican Republic. Mr. Medina monopolized the vote among voters who said they desired continuity and he successfully competed for voters who desired what he described as ‘the best change’ and ‘safe change.’ Mr. Mejia’s support was limited to those voters who said they wanted a change of course.”
Some highlights of the exit poll findings:
• President-elect Medina’s victory was due to a 7-point lead among women. In our polling, Mr. Mejia had a lead among both men and women until the middle of last year. By early this year, Mr. Medina was leading among women. In the exit poll, Mr. Mejia narrowly led among men by less than 1%.
• Danilo Medina’s strongest support came from voters age 25 to 49 while Mr. Mejia had narrow leads among both the youngest voters (who had the least experience with his past time as president) and those age 50 and over (who perhaps had the most personal experience with Mr. Mejia’s past term as president).
• Mr. Mejia’s support was limited to voters who want change while Mr. Medina appealed to both voters who said they wanted change and those who said they wanted continuity. Nine in ten (91.5%) of Mr. Mejia’s supporters say they voted for change. Six in ten (62%) of Danilo Medina’s support came from voters who desire change while 38% came from voters who say they voted for continuity.
Sigma Dos’ President, Carlos Malo de Molina, and Pete Brodnitz, a principal at BSG, advised the Medina campaign.
Sigma Dos is an award-winning public opinion and market research firm with offices in Spain and throughout Latin America. Some of Sigma Dos’ clients include numerous elected officials in Spain and Latin America, as well as some of the world’s most recognizable brands, such as 3M, BBVA and Price Waterhouse Coopers.
Pete Brodnitz of BSG. Mr. Brodnitz is a Principal at BSG, based in Washington D.C. His work includes conducting strategic research for ten heads of State and Government in nine countries, including polling for Colombia’s President Santos’s 2010 election. In 2007, Mr. Brodnitz was named “Pollster of the Year” which is the top honor in the political polling profession. BSG’s clients include President Obama, five sitting US Senators, other elected officials at various levels of government as well as international labor unions, Fortune 100 companies and major nonprofits.